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Evolution of Global Soybean Trade Flows and Share Reconfiguration Amid Tariff Policy Fluctuations

Huasen Wu, Jie Hu, Xiangrui Ma, Songrong Ye, Ting Jiang
pp.37-42 DOI: 10.62051/yvh9y737 June 15, 2026
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Abstract: In response to the United States' proposed “reciprocal tariff” policy scheduled for implementation in 2025, this study aims to quantitatively assess its far-reaching impact on the global soybean trade landscape. Based on monthly high-frequency data from 2000 to 2025, an integrated assessment framework combining an extended gravity model with demand price elasticity is constructed to estimate long-term structural parameters and short-term market responses. Simulation results reveal that tariff barriers trigger significant trade diversion effects, causing U.S. soybean exports to China to plummet by approximately 25% and market share to shrink. Meanwhile, Argentina leverages its low-cost advantage to surge exports by over threefold, emerging as the primary beneficiary of market restructuring, while Brazil maintains its dominant position. This study innovatively integrates long-term and short-term factors, revealing the underlying logic by which unilateral tariff policies reshape the international agricultural competitive landscape through supply chain substitution mechanisms.
Keywords: Gravity Model; Trade Diversion; Price Elasticity.
APA Citation: Huasen Wu, Jie Hu, Xiangrui Ma, Songrong Ye, Ting Jiang (2026). Evolution of Global Soybean Trade Flows and Share Reconfiguration Amid Tariff Policy Fluctuations. Transactions on Economics, Business and Management Research, 18(1), 37-42. https://doi.org/10.62051/yvh9y737

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